Understanding Factors Associated with Commuter Rail Ridership: A Demand Elasticity Study of the GO Transit Rail Network

Planners have theorized that transitioning commuter rail systems to regional networks will increase ridership, balance mode share, and reduce automobile use in North American cities. This process is currently underway Ontario, Canada, as service being expanded throughout the GO Transit network. Calculating elasticities a common approach used identify factors that, if adapted, may significantly influence transit demand. However, few studies focused on identifying demand specific current case of upgrading context. The purpose this study fill gap. Station-level ridership data were compiled for system from January 2016 December 2019. Smartcard estimate station catchment areas which land use, socioeconomic, demographic datasets developed. Data about additional related access, quantity, fare price, availability substitute transport modes also compiled. Controlling trip type (e.g., a.m. peak evening off-peak), models estimated using random effect panel estimator. finds population density, fuel unemployment rate associated with regardless examined. Employment density seasonal variation significant, although different signs shown between models. results suggest plans kind transition should include other considerations addition quantity improvements. Those directed toward implementation transit-oriented developments, pricing schemes, competitive price strategies are outlined.